Courage & uncertainty

How to decide when you can’t be sure

When the outcome is unclear, many people either freeze or jump. This approach helps you size the decision first: how big it really is, what exactly you are afraid of, and what small step would teach you something before you commit.

What it gets you. Name what you are really afraid of. Find a step you can take now. Go at a pace you can keep, even though you cannot know how it ends.

Ask if you can undo it

First ask whether you could undo this choice. If you could, decide quickly and learn as you go. If you could not, slow down and find out more first.

When it helps: You are treating every choice as if it were equally big.
Where it stops: Most choices can be partly undone. Ask what undoing this one would really cost you.
For example: Changing your weekly routine is easy to undo. Telling your manager you are leaving is not. Do not spend three weeks deciding both.

Name the exact risk

Say what you think could go wrong, and why you think so. Then say what you simply do not know. A vague fear makes everything feel risky. A named risk is something you can plan for.

When it helps: A general worry is making the whole decision feel dangerous.
Where it stops: Naming a fear does not make it less likely. It only helps you see it clearly.
For example: Instead of “this will go badly”, write down who you think will react, and how. Then note what makes you expect that.

Try a small step first

Look for a small step that teaches you something real, without committing you to the whole plan.

When it helps: You want to explore a change, but you do not know enough yet to commit.
Where it stops: Some small steps cannot be taken back, and others are seen by people right away. Check before you take one.
For example: Have one conversation about a different kind of work before you change anything about your current job.

Set a limit before you start

Decide at the start how much time, money or energy you will put in. When you reach that limit, stop and think again.

When it helps: You are starting something and you do not know if it will pay off.
Where it stops: A limit helps you plan. It does not make the risk go away.
For example: For a side project, pick a date to review it. Decide now what result would make it worth going on.

Choose a pace you can keep

Notice that you feel uneasy. Then choose on purpose: go ahead, prepare more, or say no. Feeling unsure tells you something useful. It does not mean you have to stop.

When it helps: You feel pushed to act before you are ready.
Where it stops: A real deadline can limit your choices. If it does, say what you are giving up. Do not stay quiet and hope.
For example: Write a few notes before a hard phone call. Or ask to talk at a better time, if you can.

An example, worked through

You are thinking about leaving a steady job to start your own business.

Ask if you can undo itQuitting is hard to undo. Testing the idea is not. So the first choice is not “quit or stay”. It is how to test the idea.
Try a small step firstTake on one paying client on weekends. One real client teaches you more than a month of planning.

One next stepTonight, write down the one person you could offer your work to this week.

In the Counsel app, you describe your own situation and choose this approach. It uses the one or two principles that fit what you wrote, and ends with one next step you can save.

Try it on your situation

Courage & uncertainty, applied to what is going on for you.

Write it the way you would tell a friend. Leave with one clear next step.

Download on theApp Store

Or ask the mentors

Prefer several views to one line of thinking? These mentors often read this kind of situation well. See all sixteen.

SenecaThe Counsellor

Marcus AureliusThe Stoic Emperor

Eleanor RooseveltThe Civic Conscience

Lao TzuThe Sage of Yielding

Other approaches

Power & influenceWhen you need credit, a decision, or a better deal Difficult conversationsWhen something needs saying and you are dreading it Long-term strategyWhen today’s choice will still matter in a year Clear thinkingWhen you cannot tell facts from guesses

These principles were written and reviewed for Counsel in plain language. They are not quotes from a book. Counsel is for thinking things through. It is not therapy, and not medical, legal or financial advice.