Clear thinking

How to separate facts from assumptions

Many bad decisions start from a guess we no longer notice is a guess. This approach helps you write down what you actually know, test the story you are telling yourself, and find the one fact that would really change what you do.

What it gets you. Write down what you know and what you are guessing. Then check that what you want to do really follows from the facts.

Separate facts from guesses

Write down what you actually saw or heard. On a separate line, write what you think it means. Keep the two apart.

When it helps: Everything depends on what someone meant, or on a reason you cannot see.
Where it stops: A guess can still be right. Being unsure does not mean your worry is wrong.
For example: Write “they have not replied” on one line. Write “they are saying no” on another. Notice which one you can prove.

Look for another explanation

Think of one other reasonable explanation for the same facts. Then ask what would show which one is true.

When it helps: One story has taken over your whole decision.
Where it stops: Use this to test your guess. Do not use it to explain away clear evidence, or a limit someone has set.
For example: Before you decide a slow reply was on purpose, think of other reasons, like a busy week or a lost message. Then decide how you would check.

Ask what would change your mind

Work out which missing fact would really change what you do. Then go and find that one.

When it helps: You keep looking things up, but you are no closer to deciding.
Where it stops: Some things you will never know for sure. Waiting for a fact that would not change your choice is just delay.
For example: Before you compare courses in detail, check the one date clash that would rule a course out.

Compare options the same way

Judge every option against the same short list. Build the list from what you said matters most.

When it helps: You are judging each option by a different standard.
Where it stops: A list helps you organise your thinking. It cannot tell you how much each thing matters to you.
For example: Compare two jobs on the work, the hours and the pay. Do not compare one job’s title with the other job’s perks.

An example, worked through

A friend has not answered your message for a week, and you think they are angry with you.

Separate facts from guessesThe fact: no reply for a week. The guess: they are angry. Only the first one is something you know.
Look for another explanationAnother explanation fits the same fact: a hard week, or a message lost in a busy chat. One easy call would tell you which.

One next stepSend one light message that asks nothing of them. Give it three days before you read more into it.

In the Counsel app, you describe your own situation and choose this approach. It uses the one or two principles that fit what you wrote, and ends with one next step you can save.

Try it on your situation

Clear thinking, applied to what is going on for you.

Write it the way you would tell a friend. Leave with one clear next step.

Download on theApp Store

Or ask the mentors

Prefer several views to one line of thinking? These mentors often read this kind of situation well. See all sixteen.

Marcus AureliusThe Stoic Emperor

BuddhaThe Awakened One

Mary WollstonecraftThe Reasoner

Benjamin FranklinThe Practical Mind

Other approaches

Power & influenceWhen you need credit, a decision, or a better deal Courage & uncertaintyWhen you have to act and you cannot be sure Difficult conversationsWhen something needs saying and you are dreading it Long-term strategyWhen today’s choice will still matter in a year

These principles were written and reviewed for Counsel in plain language. They are not quotes from a book. Counsel is for thinking things through. It is not therapy, and not medical, legal or financial advice.